LONG-RANGE STREAMFLOW FORECASTING USING NONPARAMETRIC REGRESSION

A class of nonparametric procedures is developed for producing long-range streamflow forecasts. The forecasting procedures, which are based solely on daily streamflow data, utilize nonparametric regression to relate a forecast variable to a covariate variable. The forecast variable is a function of future streamflow and can take a wide variety of forms. The covariate variable is a function of antecedent streamflow. The forecasting procedures are quite flexible, both in terms of the duration of the forecast period and the types of forecast variables that can be considered. The procedures are used to develop long-term (1-4 months) forecasts of minimum daily flow of the Potomac River at Washington, D.C. This forecast information is an integral component of water management activities for the Washington, D.C., metropolitan area.