BREAKING GLOBAL TEMPERATURE RECORDS AFTER MT-PINATUBO

被引：3

作者：

BASSETT, GW

LIN, ZY

机构：

[1] Department of Economics (m/c144), University of Illinois at Chicago, Chicago, 60680-2451, Il

来源：

CLIMATIC CHANGE | 1993年 / 25卷 / 02期

关键词：

D O I：

10.1007/BF01661205

中图分类号：

X [环境科学、安全科学];

学科分类号：

08 ; 0830 ;

摘要：

The probability of setting global temperature records is reconsidered in light of cooling due to the Mt. Pinatubo eruption. The cooling 'resets' temperature by moving it away from the top of its 100-year range. Depending on the statistical model for temperature, this 'reset' can lead to a much lower probability for a record in the next few years. The exercise illustrates how record setting depends on the underlying model, the current record value, and - if there is serial correlation - the current temperature.

引用

页码：179 / 184

页数：6