SOCIAL IMPLICATIONS OF SEVERE SUSTAINED DROUGHT - CASE-STUDIES IN CALIFORNIA AND COLORADO

Survey data collected in the San Joaquin Valley of southern California and the Grand Valley of western Colorado reveal that residents of both areas believe that a severe sustained drought is likely to occur within the next 20-25 years and that their communities would be seriously impacted by such an event. Although a severe sustained drought affecting the Colorado River Basin would cause major economic and social disruptions in these and other communities, residents express little support for water management alternatives that would require significant shifts in economic development activities or in water use and allocation patterns. In particular, residents of these areas express little support for strategies such as construction and growth moratoriums, mandatory water conservation programs, water transfers from low- to high-population areas, water marketing, or reallocations of water from agricultural to municipal/industrial uses. This rejection of water management strategies that would require a departure from ''business as usual'' with respect to water use and allocations severely restricts the capacity of these and similar communities to respond effectively should a severe sustained drought occur.