APPLICATION OF A MULTIGENERATION DIFFUSION-MODEL TO MILK CONTAINER TECHNOLOGY

A recently introduced multi-generation model [18], developed for high-technology industries and tested on a high-tech product class, is applied to a very different situation. It is tested by fitting and forecasting use of three generations of packaging technology in the fluid milk market, glass, paperboard cartons, and plastic, across two submarkets: gallons and half gallons. Results in the gallon market show that the model can be successfully applied to industries not usually associated with high technology, and to specific submarkets, rather than across a whole product class. It is less successful in the half-gallon market, which violates some of the assumptions underlying the model. Extension of the model with the addition of pricing and growth terms allows slightly improved forecasts over the basic model without these terms.