Modelling delay risks associated with train schedules

被引：40
作者：
Higgins, A [1 ]
Kozan, E [1 ]
Ferreira, L [1 ]
机构：
[1] QUEENSLAND UNIV TECHNOL,SCH CIVIL ENGN,BRISBANE,QLD 4001,AUSTRALIA
来源：
TRANSPORTATION PLANNING AND TECHNOLOGY | 1995年 / 19卷 / 02期
关键词：
rail operations; reliability; risk analysis; modelling;
D O I：
10.1080/03081069508717561
中图分类号：
U [交通运输];
学科分类号：
08 ; 0823 ;
摘要：
Overall timetable reliability is a measure of the likely performance of the timetable as a whole, in terms of schedule adherence. The reliability of arrivals is a critical performance measure for all rail markets. This paper presents analytically based models designed to quantify the amount of delay risk associated with each track segment, train and the schedule as a whole. Three main types of delays are modelled, namely: terminal/station delays; track related delays; and rolling stock related delays. The models can be used to prioritise investment projects designed to improve timetable reliability. For example, a comparison can be made between track, terminal and rolling stock projects, in terms of their likely impact on timetable reliability. The effect of timetable changes on likely reliability can also be modelled. Using the risk models developed here, it is possible to assess the likely effect of removing/ adding sidings for passing and crossing purposes, under single line train operations. The paper illustrates the use of the models using a series of tests with a timetable consisting of nine trains and six stations. The effect of changing assumptions regarding delays due to terminal congestion; track related problems; and rolling stock, are modelled and the results are summarised. Also modelled is the impact of changes to the timetable.
引用
收藏
页码：89 / 108
页数：20
相关论文
共 13 条
  • [1] Jeffs V.P., Hills P.J., Determinants of Modal Choice in Freight Transport, Transportation, 17, pp. 29-41, (1990)
  • [2] Fowkes A.S., Nash C.A., Tweedle G., Investigating the Market for Intermodal Freight Technologies, Transportation research A, 25A, 4, pp. 161-172, (1991)
  • [3] Rail transport, AGPS, (1991)
  • [4] International Performance Indicators: Rail freight Update, Research Report 52, (1993)
  • [5] Petersen E.R., Taylor A.J., Maitland C.D., An Introduction to Computer Assisted Train Dispatch, Journal of Advanced Transportation, 20, pp. 63-72, (1986)
  • [6] Kraay D., Harker P., Chen B., Optimal Pacing of Trains in Freight Railroads, Operations Research, 39, pp. 82-99, (1991)
  • [7] Mills R.G., Perkins S.E., Pudney P.J., Dynamic Rescheduling of Long Haul Trains for Improved Timekeeping and Energy, Asia-Pacific Journal Operational Research, 8, pp. 146-165, (1991)
  • [8] Higgins A., Kozan E., Ferreira L., Optimal Train Scheduling with Dynamic Priorities, Physical Infrastructure Research Report, pp. 22-93, (1993)
  • [9] Kraft E.R., Jam Capacity of Single Track Rail Lines, Transportation Transport Research Forum Proceedings, 23, pp. 461-471, (1982)
  • [10] Higgins A., Ferreira L., Kozan E., Mathematical Modelling of Train Delays, Physical Infrastructure Research Report, pp. 20-94, (1994)
12