S&T policy and foresight investigation - impacts in Japan

被引:10
作者
Urashima, Kuniko [1 ]
Yokoo, Yoshiko [2 ]
Nagano, Hiroshi [3 ]
机构
[1] Natl Inst Sci & Technol Policy, Green Innovat Unit, Tokyo, Japan
[2] Natl Inst Sci & Technol Policy, Sci & Technol Foresight Ctr, Tokyo, Japan
[3] Natl Inst Sci & Technol Policy, Tokyo, Japan
来源
FORESIGHT | 2012年 / 14卷 / 01期
关键词
Foresight; Delphi survey; Science and technology policy; Scenario; Delphi method; Japan; Forecasting;
D O I
10.1108/14636681211210332
中图分类号
TU98 [区域规划、城乡规划];
学科分类号
0814 ; 082803 ; 0833 ;
摘要
Purpose - The 9th S&T Foresight for Japan has recently been completed. A key element of this Foresight is that S&T is now expected to indicate solutions for broad social issues and global issues (climate change, etc.) including those that address Japan's most urgent challenges (e.g. energy, aging population). This mission-oriented foresight is novel for the Japanese, since prior foresight exercises have been done with a technology focus. This paper aims to address how the new view of foresight - as more than mere technical potentials - has resulted in several types of foresight impacts, which are noted in the main text. Design/methodology/approach - The 9th Delphi Survey involved two types of interdisciplinary perspectives related to Japan's social future (Safe, Secure, Cooperation and Collaboration) and 12 S&T fields. The committees discussed what could emerge within 30 years and involved 26 domains of social expertise and 140 specialists. Findings - The 9th S&T Foresight investigation consists of an integration of three foresight methods Delphi survey, scenario writing, and capability of local regions for green innovation - regarding sustainable development. Each method provides clear messages, and has unique impacts. Originality/value - Overall, a major foresight impact has been to enable a broader view of innovation to prevail in this ninth foresight, where social-scenario insights and more socially adaptive policies complement the traditional S&T focus developed by Delphi surveys 1-8. This shifted the policy discourse toward societal innovation from technical innovation.
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页码:15 / 25
页数:11
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