SIMULATION OF WATER-SUPPLY AND DEMAND IN THE ARAL SEA REGION

The Aral Sea, a huge saline lake located in the arid south-central region of the former U.S.S.R., is vanishing because the inflows from its two feed rivers, the Amudar'ya and Syrdar'ya, have diminished radically over the past three decades. The loss of river flow is the result of massive increases in river withdrawals, primarily for cotton irrigation in the basins. A microcomputer model, the Water Evaluation and Planning System (WEAP), has been developed for simulating current water balances and evaluating water management strategies in the Aral Sea region. WEAP treats water demand and supply issues in a comprehensive and integrated fashion. The scenario approach allows flexible representation of the consequences of alternative development patterns and supply dynamics. For the Aral region's complex water systems, a detailed water demand and supply simulation was performed for the 1987-2020 period, assuming that the current practices continue. The analysis provides a picture of an unfolding and deepening crisis. Policy scenarios incorporating remedial actions will be reported in a separate paper