MODELING STREAM ACIDIFICATION IN AFFORESTED CATCHMENTS - LONG-TERM RECONSTRUCTIONS AT 2 SITES IN CENTRAL SCOTLAND

A conceptual model of the combined effects of afforestation and acidic deposition is applied to two forested sites in central Scotland. Refinements are made to the model inputs specifically to include: increased dry deposition to the forests (in excess of the dry deposition expected for moorland sites) as the forest canopy develops; uptake of ions by the growing forests; and increased evapotranspiration (and thus decreased water yield) as the forests mature. The model is calibrated using a fuzzy optimisation technique which incorporates uncertainty in target variables (stream base cation concentrations and soil exchangeable bases) and uncertainty in selecting values for fixed and adjustable parameters which describe the physico-chemical characteristics of the catchments. Simulated present-day stream and soil chemistry closely match observed values at both sites. The calibrated models indicate that while the patterns of acidification in the two catchments are broadly similar, some differences do exist between the sites in the responses of the soils to acidic deposition and afforestation. It is concluded that the calibrated models provide a tool for: (a) comparison of the relative effects of deposition and afforestation on soil and surface water acidification; (b) assessment of the likely effects of reductions in future deposition combined with future forestry management practices. © 1990.