STATISTICAL VALIDATION OF SIMULATION-MODELS

被引:47
作者
KLEIJNEN, JPC [1 ]
机构
[1] TILBURG UNIV,CTR HLTH RES,5000 LE TILBURG,NETHERLANDS
关键词
MODELING; SIMULATION; SCENARIOS; REGRESSION; MILITARY;
D O I
10.1016/0377-2217(95)00132-A
中图分类号
C93 [管理学];
学科分类号
12 ; 1201 ; 1202 ; 120202 ;
摘要
Rigorous statistical validation requires that the responses of the mode]. and the real system have the same expected values. However, the modeled and actual responses are not comparable if they are obtained under different scenarios (environmental conditions). Moreover, data on the real system may be unavailable; sensitivity analysis can then be applied to find out whether the model inputs have effects on the model outputs that agree with the experts' intuition. Not only the total model, but also its modules may be submitted to such sensitivity analyses. This article illustrates these issues through a case study, namely a simulation model for the use of sonar to search for mines on the sea bottom. The methodology, however, applies to models in general.
引用
收藏
页码:21 / 34
页数:14
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