Embracing Complexity and Uncertainty: The Potential of Agent-Based Modeling for Environmental Planning and Policy

Environmental degradation is often defined as a public goods problem, emerging when property rights are not clearly defined and costs are externalized to other parties. Proposing corrective regulation that enforces technological fixes or market-based approaches is often met with political resistance and doubts about its effectiveness. This is partly due to the complexity of interacting physical and socio-economic components that obscure the impacts of human decision-making on environmental functions. Yet, understanding the complexity of integrated human-environmental systems can help planners and stakeholders frame environmental problems, view their role in them and design effective policies to address them. This article examines the potential and limitations of agent-based models as metaphors that can contribute to the understanding of such complex systems, illustrating the argument with a hypothetical application in groundwater management.