SCENARIOS FOR MITIGATING GREENHOUSE GASES EMISSIONS AND PROMOTING SUSTAINABLE ENERGY DEVELOPMENT IN BRAZIL

This work presents the methodology and results of a study carried out by the Energy and Environmental Planning Program of the Center for Postgraduate Studies in Engineering of the Federal University of Rio de Janeiro (PPE/ COPPE/UFRJ). An estimate elaborated by PPE/COPPE/UFRJ of Brazilian CO2 emissions due to energy consumption from 1970 to 1990 is presented initially. It is shown that Amazon deforestation is today the largest contributor to the greenhouse effect in Brazil, In the long run, however, emissions from the energy system (due to the burning of oil products, natural gas, coal and coke, wood, and charcoal) are bound to increase and overtake CO, emissions from deforestation. This study evaluates three scenarios of the long-run evolution of Brazilian economic and energy sectors; the scenarios were formulated by PPE/COPPE/UFRJ. The possibility of halving future CO2 emissions (resulting from fossil fuel energy consumption) with small increases of costs and investments linked to the energy sector is illustrated. This abatement scenario would require dramatic efforts to promote energy conservation On the supply side of the Brazilian energy balance, efforts would need to be made to promote the use of alternative fuels such as hydropower, ethanol and bagasse from sugar cane, wood and charcoal from afforestation programmers. However, recent trends in Brazilian energy policy do not coincide with the above abatement scenario due to the lack of ability to fund capital-intensive projects. The transfer of an adequate amount of financial resources from industrialized countries in appropriate soft terms is thus required in order for the Brazilian energy system to curb the greenhouse effect. Vast opportunities exist for a positive working relationship between both sustainable energy development strategies derived from national objectives and the prevention of global climate change. To this end, policies to tap the renewable energy potential should include appropriate measures to minimize any negative social and ecological impacts at the local and regional levels, as well as demonstrating their economic cost-effectiveness. Mechanisms adopted to implement the Convention on Global Climate Change signed an June 1992 during the United Nations Conference on Environment and Development in Rio de Janeiro, such as the Global Environment Facility (GEF), should support the viability of these strategies in Brazil, as well as in other developing countries.