Discrete event simulation model for planning Level 2 "step-down'' bed needs using NEMS

In highly congested hospitals it may be common for patients to overstay at Intensive Care Units (ICU) due to blockages and imbalances in capacity. This is inadequate clinically, as patients occupy a service they no longer need; operationally, as it disrupts flow from upstream units; and financially as ICU beds are more expensive than ward beds. Step-down beds, also known as Level 2 beds, have become an increasingly popular and less expensive alternative to ICU beds to deal with this issue. We developed a discrete event simulation model that estimates Level 2 bed needs for a large university hospital. The model innovates by simulating the entirety of the hospital's inpatient flow and most importantly, the ICU's daily stochastic flows based on a nursing workload scoring metrics called "Nine Equivalents of Nursing Manpower Use Score'' (NEMS). Using data from a large academic hospital, the model shows the benefits of Level 2 beds in improving both patient flow and costs. (C) 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.