War, drought, and phenology: changes in the land surface phenology of Afghanistan since 1982

War and resulting institutional changes can be important drivers of land use and land cover change. We explore how war, its consequences, and drought have affected the land surface phenology (LSP) of Afghanistan. Afghanistan offers a unique case of a semi-arid country with multiple institutional changes during the past two decades. Long image time series are able to characterize the seasonal development of Afghanistan's vegetated land surface. We apply a statistical framework to four governance periods and compare the average AVHRR NDVI 8 km data across periods, and calculate trends within study periods. We focus on significant changes in LSP in the region around Qandahar. Finally, we assess changes in LSP between 2001 (a drought year) and 2003 (a year with sufficient precipitation) using MODIS NDVI 1km data. Results reveal the strengths and limitations of LSP modeling in an environment characterized by high interannual and spatial variability as well as by socio-economic turbulence.