The macroeconomic impact of non-communicable diseases in China and India: Estimates, projections, and comparisons

被引：37

作者：

Bloom, David E. ^{[1
]}

Cafiero-Fonseca, Elizabeth T. ^{[7
]}

McGovern, Mark E. ^{[1
,2
]}

Prettner, Klaus ^{[3
]}

Stanciole, Anderson ^{[4
]}

Weiss, Jonathan ^{[5
,6
]}

Bakkila, Samuel ^{[7
]}

Rosenberg, Larry ^{[7
]}

机构：

[1] Harvard Sch Publ Hlth, Dept Global Hlth & Populat, 665 Huntington Ave,Bldg 1,12th Floor,Suite 1202, Boston, MA 02115 USA

[2] Harvard Ctr Populat & Dev Studies, Cambridge, MA 02138 USA

[3] Vienna Univ Technol, Inst Math Methods Econ, A-1040 Vienna, Austria

[4] Bill & Melinda Gates Fdn, Seattle, WA 98109 USA

[5] London Sch Hyg & Trop Med, London WC1E 7HT, England

[6] UNICEF Supply Div, DK-2100 Copenhagen O, Denmark

[7] Harvard Sch Publ Hlth, Dept Global Hlth & Populat, Boston, MA USA

来源：

JOURNAL OF THE ECONOMICS OF AGEING | 2014年 / 4卷

关键词：

Health and economic development; Non-communicable disease; Economic growth; Cost benefit analysis;

D O I：

10.1016/j.jeoa.2014.08.003

中图分类号：

C921 [人口统计学];

学科分类号：

摘要：

This study provides estimates of the macroeconomic impact of non-communicable diseases (NCDs) in China and India for the period 2012-2030. Our estimates are derived using the World Health Organization's EPIC model of economic growth, which focuses on the negative effects of NCDs on labor supply and capital accumulation. We present results for the five main NCDs (cardiovascular disease, cancer, chronic respiratory disease, diabetes, and mental health). Our undiscounted estimates indicate that the cost of the five main NCDs will total USD 23.03 trillion for China and USD 4.58 trillion for India (in 2010 USD). For both countries, the most costly domain is cardiovascular disease. Our analyses also reveal that the costs are much larger in China than in India mainly because of China's higher and steeper income trajectory, and to a lesser extent its older population. Rough calculations also indicate that WHO's best buys for addressing the challenge of NCDs are highly cost-beneficial. (C) 2014 Elsevier B. V. All rights reserved.

引用

页码：100 / 111

页数：12

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