System dynamics model for simulation of the dynamics of corneal transplants

The increasing need for organ transplants demands the Hospital Management System (HMS) to face the future challenges of meeting such demands with effective policy decisions. This paper analyzes the various dynamics involved in corneal transplants by means of System Dynamics simulation and the waiting list of patients awaiting corneal transplants has been studied. The simulation model has is validated using actual data collected from a local hospital. Non-parametric statistical tests have been performed and found that there is no significant difference between the observed and simulated waiting list data. Hence, we use this model to forecast the number of people awaiting transplants after 48 simulated months (2012). This simulated prediction forces the hospital planning authorities to find ways to reduce the waiting list/waiting time of patients awaiting transplants. Though the developed simulation is general to study the dynamics involved in any type of organ transplants, it is demonstrated for the corneal transplants in the ophthalmology department. Also, we discuss a few improvements to reduce the waiting list of patients awaiting organ transplants.