MODEL FOR CALCULATING REGIONAL ENERGY USE, INDUSTRIAL-PRODUCTION AND GREENHOUSE-GAS EMISSIONS FOR EVALUATING GLOBAL CLIMATE SCENARIOS

In the integrated IMAGE 2.0 model the ''Energy-Industry System'' is implemented as a set of models to develop global scenarios for energy use and industrial processes and for the related emissions of greenhouse gases on a region specific basis. The Energy-Economy model computes total energy use, with a focus on final energy consumption in end-use sectors, based on economic activity levels and the energy conservation potential (''end-use approach''). The Industrial Production and Consumption model computes the future levels of activities other than energy use, which lead to greenhouse gas emissions, based on relations with activities defined in the Energy-Economy model. These two models are complemented by two emissions models, to compute the associated emissions by using emission factors per compound and per activity defined. For investigating energy conservation and emissions control strategy scenarios various techno-economic coefficients in the model can be modified. In this paper the methodology and implementation of the ''Energy-Industry System'' models is described as well as results from their testing against data for the period 1970-1990. In addition, the application of the models is presented for a specific scenario calculation. Future extensions of the models are in preparation.