ALTERNATIVE MEASURES OF RISK IN COMMODITY SUPPLY MODELS - AN ANALYSIS OF SOW FARROWING DECISIONS IN THE UNITED-STATES

The role of price risk in sow farrowings is investigated by using bivariate ARCH-M and GARCH-M models and a nonparametric kernel estimator. To account for the relevant time horizon of irreversible supply decisions, predictions for mean price and conditional price variance are iterated forward. The empirical results vary markedly in terms of their implications for fisk response in hog supply decisions, with the ARCH-M and GARCH-M models suggesting a small and negative fisk effect. Estimates of the marginal risk premium also indicate moderate and variable departures from marginal cost pricing in sow farrowing supply decisions.