A SYSTEM DYNAMICS MODEL OF NATIONAL COCAINE PREVALENCE

被引：38

作者：

HOMER, JB ^{[1
]}

机构：

[1] UNIV SO CALIF,LOS ANGELES,CA 90089

来源：

SYSTEM DYNAMICS REVIEW | 1993年 / 9卷 / 01期

关键词：

D O I：

10.1002/sdr.4260090104

中图分类号：

C93 [管理学];

学科分类号：

12 ; 1201 ; 1202 ; 120202 ;

摘要：

A system dynamics model reproduces a variety of national Indicator data reflecting cocaine use and supply over a 15‐year period and provides detailed estimates of actual underlying prevalence. Sensitivity testing clarifies the source of observed trends, such as growth in the compulsive use of crack cocaine and decline in the casual use of cocaine powder. Alternative scenarios with possible policy implications are simulated and projected for 12 years, and the results are assessed. Copyright © 1993 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

引用

页码：49 / 78

页数：30

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