THE DRAMATIC INCREASE IN THE RATE OF LOW-BIRTH-WEIGHT IN NEW-YORK-CITY - AN AGGREGATE TIME-SERIES ANALYSIS

This paper uses monthly time-series data from 1968 through 1988 to test whether the observed increase in the incidence of low birthweight in New York City represents a reversal of the downward trend that existed prior to 1984. We find that the trend has shifted for both Whites and Blacks. We estimate that between July 1984 and December 1988 there were, 3,110 additional low-birthweight births to Blacks and 1,385 additional low-birthweight births to Whites above what would have been expected had the rate of low birthweight not shifted upwards. The incremental costs of treating these infants in their first year of life is estimated at over $22,000,000 in 1986 dollars.