The demography of the decline in the British willow warbler population

Since 1989, there has been a major and unprecedented decline in the breeding population of willow warblers (Phylloscopus trochilus) in southern Britain. Between 1986 and 1993 the numbers of willow warbler territories counted on monitoring plots declined by 47% in southern Britain, compared to a decline of 7% in northern Britain. Breeding densities of willow warblers are generally higher in the north and west of Britain, than in the south. Data from nest record cards provided evidence of only minor regional differences in breeding performance with a small but significant increase in the loss rate of nests during the nestling stage in 1989-1992 in southern Britain, compared with 1974-1988. Mark-recapture data collected at 18 constant effort sites and from one intensive study were used to estimate apparent survival rates of adults during the period 1987-1993. Program SURGE4 was used to test for differences in survival rates and recapture probabilities between years, sexes, sites and regions. Recapture probabilities differed between sites and between the sexes but not between years. Survival rates differed significantly between years (in southern Britain) but not between sexes or sites. In southern Britain, adult survival declined fi om 45% during 1987-1988 to 24% during 1991-1992, while in northern Britain there was no evidence that survival changed during the same period. Although the pattern of annual variation in survival differed between northern and southern Britain, this was due mainly to a much lower survival rate in southern Britain during 1991-1992. Declining survival rates of adult willow warblers have probably been a major cause of the observed population decline.