Modelling future vehicle exhaust emissions in Europe

Vehicle exhaust emissions are significant sources of air pollution in many European countries. Emissions of oxides of nitrogen and volatile organic compounds contribute to transboundary air pollution, and the environmental problems of acidification, eutrophication and tropospheric ozone formation. This paper presents estimates of future exhaust emissions from load vehicles within countries of the United Nations Economic Commission for Europe region for two control scenarios. Alternative regulatory standards are examined including a Current Plans scenario and a Best Available Technology scenario. Calculations presented in this paper suggest that Current Plans could reduce emissions of oxides of nitrogen from road vehicles by about 70 per cent and that the application of Best Available Technology to gasoline and diesel vehicles could reduce emissions by 80 per cent. The paper ends with a discussion of the many interactions between transport and the environment and it is suggested that combinations of regulatory approaches will be needed if the environmental impact of road transportation is to be reduced in the future.