ANNUAL AND LONG-TERM VARIATION IN THE SURVIVAL RATES OF BRITISH LAPWINGS VANELLUS-VANELLUS

1. In many parts of Britain and in other parts of western Europe, the lapwing Vanellus vanellus is declining. In order to determine if the decline in numbers was associated with a reduction in adult or first-year survival rates, an analysis of British ringing recoveries was conducted. 2. There was no evidence that survival after the first year of life was age-dependent. 3. Mean annual adult survival (1930-88) is estimated at 0.705 +/- 0.031 (+/- 95% confidence intervals). Since 1960, adult survival has increased to 0.752 +/- 0.046. Two weather variables (mean winter soil temperature and total winter rainfall) explained 69% of the variation in adult survival rates between 1961 and 1979. 4. Mean first-year survival (1930-87) is estimated at 0.595 +/- 0.040 (+/- 95% confidence intervals). As in the adults, the same two weather variables (mean winter soil temperature and total winter rainfall) explained 55% of the variation in first-year survival rates between 1959 and 1979. 5. In order to replace annual adult losses, lapwings should produce in the region of 0-83-0-97 fledglings per pair each year. From a review of the available literature, lapwings produced enough fledglings to maintain the population in only 8 out of 24 studies.