FORECASTING CAR EXPENDITURES USING HOUSEHOLD SURVEY DATA

Surveys collecting data on consumer attitudes and buying intentions have been performed in Sweden since 1973. This paper examines the usefulness of these data as quick indicators of the development of household expenditures on automobiles. In the evaluation we are considering the explanatory power as well as the prediction accuracy. It turns out that the best single indicator is among the plan indices. However, an indicator based on car registration statistics is found to be at least as good. By combining plan/attitude indices with car registrations our study shows that considerable improvements can be obtained.