THE POVERTY OF ECONOMIC-ANALYSIS

It is argued that economic theory and the forecasting that arises from it, particularly in the UK, is distorted by the concentration on financial rather than technological and manufacturing considerations, and that this bias largely results from the influence of the predominant ethos of the elite groups in British society. The effects have certainly been catastrophic. In some way this disaster has happened without causing the dramatic sensation that the collapse of a major part of the financial system might entail. And they are of comparable size and importance. No doubt some part of this is due to the long saga of decline, but also, manufacturing is just not seen as being of quite so much importance in the eyes of those who govern or form public opinion. No doubt some part of this failure can be attributed to wrong or inconsistent financial and governmental policies. A great deal is also currently being said about how the trade unions must also bear some of the responsibility. Overwhelmingly, however, the main problem is the absence of a substantial technical elite at all levels in society, combined with the culture and outlook they might be expected to ceate. It requires substantial time and effort, combined with a well thought out strategy for manufacturing reform if we are to be successful in competition with the east Asians. If we do accept this, and recognize short-term changes in economic matters as no more than fluctuations in the long-term trends, then we may take the first steps towards establishing that strand of technical culture running through all levels of British society without which national prosperity is likely to prove as elusive as economic forecasting is erroneous.