ALTERNATIVE SCENARIOS FOR CENTRAL-EUROPE

被引：1

作者：

VANZON, H

机构：

[1] Hans van Zon is attached to the Forecasting and Assessment in Science and Technology (FAST) group of the Commission of the European Communities, Commission of the EC, DG XII, H-3 FAST, Artslux 3-21, rue de la Loi 200

来源：

FUTURES | 1992年 / 24卷 / 05期

关键词：

D O I：

10.1016/0016-3287(92)90017-A

中图分类号：

F [经济];

学科分类号：

02 ;

摘要：

In this article alternative scenarios for Central Europe, ie Hungary, Czechoslovakia and Poland, are discussed within a national and an international context. It is shown how the various dimensions of change in Central Europe are closely interlinked. The solution of the major quests the region face, ie the quest for economic viability, the quest for social and political cohesion and the quest for a stable and secure international environment, occur in conjunction. It is argued that the completion of the various tasks exhibit different timescales which in itself may provoke additional problems. Moreover, potential synergies may easily turn into self-destructive dynamics. Based on a comprehensive assessment of the problems the region faces now and most probably in the 15-20 years to come, five scenarios are constructed which highlight the driving forces the region may face. Distinguished are the laissezfaire/capitalist scenarios, the populist-authoritarian scenario, the leaning-upon-the-West scenario, the sustainable development scenario and the muddling-on scenario.

引用

页码：471 / 482

页数：12