RELIABILITY-GROWTH MYTHS AND METHODOLOGIES - A CRITICAL-VIEW

Reliability growth is a concept that is being used as the basis for planning equipment reliability tests, assessing reliability improvement for changing equipment configurations, and reliability predictions. This concept has been the subject of much discussion in the reliability community; over 80 articles can be found in the Annual Reliability Symposium Proceedings 1980-1991. In spite of this discussion, the underlying basis for the concept and its application has not been critically examined. In this paper it is asserted that reliability prediction is not a reasonable application of reliability growth concept, and that the various mathematical models introduced may not adequately describe the reliability growth process. Further understanding of the factors for test planning has not advanced beyond the rules of thumb that were proposed when the concept was initially introduced in 1964. The reliability community is challenged to reexamine the reliability growth concept and particularly how the concept is being applied.