Modeling of scenarios of potential change in the vegetation and land use in the West Sierra Madre of San Luis Potosi, Mexico

Here the dynamics of land use change in the "Sierra Madre Oriental" portion of the state of San Luis Potosi, considered an important site for conservation of biodiversity in Mexico are studied. Satellite images from 1989 to 2005 are studied, during which period a total of 65,000 ha. suffered some type of land use or land cover change. A probability map of change and modeled future scenarios based on cellular automates was prepared. It is estimated that almost 13% of natural vegetation is susceptible to change. By 2025 the amount of surface transformed could triple. The principal factors affecting such changes are population density, marginalization and poverty of the population, and distance to roads. The main threat for the ecosystems is the increase in the extent of the areas devoted to livestock grazing and to crop agriculture.