CHALLENGER PROFILE AND GUBERNATORIAL ELECTIONS

Although challenger profile or quality is an important variable in explaining legislative elections, its utility in gubernatorial campaigns has not been explored. In this paper I examine challenger profile in gubernatorial contests, using aggregate data collected for all elections from 1977 to 1989. I show that the dynamics of open-seat contests differ from those with an incumbent running. Higher profile candidates run in open-seat contests than against incumbents, but profile level exerts a stronger influence in incumbent races. Economic conditions affect challenger profile in races involving incumbents, but not in campaigns for open seats. Although challenger profile proves consequential, the strength of a candidate's party in the state is the most important variable in explaining outcomes of both open seat and incumbent races.