THE SELECTION INDEX - THEN, NOW, AND FOR THE FUTURE

When improvement is desired for several traits that may differ in variability, heritability, economic importance, and in the correlation among their phenotypes and genotypes, simultaneous multiple-trait index selection was more effective than independent culling levels or sequential selection. Such comparisons required definition of aggregate breeding value determined jointly by breeding values and the economic importance of the component traits. The economic weight should approximate the partial regression of cost per unit of enterprise output value on breeding value for each trait. These can vary with production and marketing system, with performance of traits, and with breed role (i.e., paternal, maternal, or general) in crossbreeding systems. Genetic gains desired to maintain competitive ranking also may define the relative importance of traits. Because information available to estimate breeding values varies among the ages and categories of individuals under selection and because means are unknown, regressed (BLUP) predictions of trait breeding values are useful. They allow appropriate economic weights to be applied as the last step for predicting aggregate breeding values for individuals of different age classes, and they simplify choosing the proportions of selected breeders from each age class that maximize rate of change in aggregate breeding values. Inappropriate economic weights or errors in the parameters used to predict trait breeding values overestimate realized response in true aggregate breeding value.