High genetic diversity and low future habitat suitability: will Cupressus atlantica, endemic to the High Atlas, survive under climate change?

Cupressus atlantica is a narrow endemic species of semi-arid and sub-humid habitats in the western High Atlas, Morocco. We explored the possible dynamics of the species’ range under climatic changes using species distribution modelling (SDM) to identify populations vulnerable to range changes. Additionally, we investigated the spatial genetic structure (SGS), the effective population size and genetic connectivity in natural populations, which may provide important data on demo-genetic processes and support the conservation management of this critically endangered species. The SDM results showed that the current species range constitutes only 49% of the potential distribution. Under the most pessimistic scenarios (RCP6.0 and RCP8.5), a significant reduction in the species range was predicted. However, the projection based on RPC4.5 revealed possible extensions of the habitats suitable for C. atlantica. Potentially, these areas could serve as new habitats that could be used with the assisted migration approach aiming to mitigate the current fragmentation. In terms of the SGS, significant and positive aggregation of relatives was detected up to ca. 100 m. In comparison to other fragmented and endemic species, the detected SGS was weak (Sp = 0.0112). The estimated level of recent gene flow was considerable, which likely prevented a strong SGS and allowed diversity to accumulate (HE = 0.894). The most alarming results concern the effective population size, which was very low in the studied populations (< 53), suggesting a possible increase in inbreeding and loss of diversity in the near future. More effective conservation actions integrating in situ and ex situ measures should be undertaken to prevent extirpation of the species.