Associations between serum ferritin baselines and trajectories and the incidence of metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease: a prospective cohort study

Background and aims Evidence from prospective cohort studies on the relationship between metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD) and longitudinal changes in serum ferritin (SF) still limited. This study aimed to investigate the associations of SF baselines and trajectories with new-onset MASLD and to present a MASLD discriminant model. Methods A total of 1895 participants who attended health examinations at least three times in a hospital in Dalian City between 2015 and 2022 were included. The main outcome was the incidence of MASLD. The associations between SF baselines and trajectories with the risk of MASLD were analyzed by Cox proportional hazards regression, restricted cubic spline (RCS) analysis and time-dependent receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis. In addition, a MASLD discrimination model was established using logistic regression analyses. Results Among the 1895 participants, 492 developed MASLD during follow-up. Kaplan-Meier analysis indicated that participants in the low-stable trajectory group had a longer MASLD-free time compared with participants in other groups. Compared with those in the low-stable trajectory group, the adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for the risk of new-onset MASLD in the medium-high, high-stable and high-high trajectory groups were 1.54(1.18-2.00), 1.77(1.35-2.32) and 1.55(1.07-2.26), respectively (P trend < 0.001). The results were robust in subgroup and sensitivity analyses. Multivariate Cox proportional regression showed that SF was an independent risk factor of MASLD (HR = 1.002, 95%CI: 1.000-1.003, P = 0.003). The restricted cubic spline demonstrated a nonlinear relationship between SF and the risk of MASLD. The 8-variable model had high discriminative performance, good accuracy and clinical effectiveness. The ROC curve results showed that AUC was greater than that of the FLI, HSI and ZJU models (all P < 0.01). Conclusions Not only a higher baseline SF but also SF changing trajectory are significantly associated with risk of new-onset MASLD. SF could be a predictor of the occurrence of MASLD.