Processes and prediction of land use/land cover changes (LUCC) driven by farm construction: the case of Naoli River Basin in Sanjiang Plain

The fundamental land use/land cover change (LUCC) of Naoli River (NLR) Basin in Sanjiang Plain since 1954 is characterized with a very significant shrink of wetland area, primarily due to agricultural reclamation, especially farm construction. In this paper, LUCC data of six periods were generated to explore the process of LUCC in NLR; the driving factors were discovered and the regression analysis of these driving factors was realized using the Dyna-CLUE model; and the land use pattern of 2020 in NLR Basin was projected under six scenarios. The results showed that the area ratio of wetland decreased from 45.84 % in 1954 to 9.76 % in 2010, and meanwhile, the area ratio of cultivated land (including paddy field and dry land) increased from 8.20 to 57.97 %, and areas of other land use types also changed dramatically. Demographic factors, especially large-scale farm construction, were the key driving factors of LUCC. The projection results presented a general trend of LUCC, with a constant increase of paddy field, a slow decline of dry land, and a gradual decrease of wetland, and wetlands in the downstream area of NLR were identified as the most sensitive to be affected, and badly in need of protection.