End-to-End Modeling of the Solar Terrestrial System

Traditionally modeling for space science has concentrated on developing simulations for individual components of the solar terrestrial system. In reality these regions are coupled together. This coupling can be as simple as the driving of the magnetosphere – ionosphere – thermosphere system by the solar wind or as a complicated as the feedback of the ionospheric conductivity and currents on the magnetosphere. As part of the CISM project we are beginning a concentrated effort to compressively model the entire system. This approach includes chains of models. In the first chain physics based numerical models are utilized while in the second chain empirical models are coupled together. The first half of this paper discusses the numerical modeling approach by highlighting the coupling of pairs of regions within the system. In the second section we present results from empirical models which are combined to make long term forecasts of conditions in the geospace environment. It is expected that a validated and reliable forecast model for space weather can be obtained by combining the strongest elements of each chain.