Natural fracture prediction in Keshen 2 ultra-deep tight gas reservoir based on R/S analysis, Kuqa Depression, Tarim Basin

Within ultra-deep tight sandstone gas reservoirs, natural fractures indicate significant effects on reservoir performance because they can serve as storage spaces for hydrocarbons and improve the permeability. Accurate prediction of natural fractures in ultra-deep reservoirs is critical to the exploration and development of tight gas in Keshen 2 Block of Kuqa Depression. In this study, several conventional logs are selected and the R/S analysis method is introduced to predict the development and distribution of natural fractures in ultra-deep tight sandstone reservoirs. Fracture development coefficient Q is calculated based on the second derivatives of lg(R/S) function and corresponding weight of each log parameter, which matches well with linear fracture density measured from image logs. There is a positive correlation between parameter Q and fracture density, higher Q values usually indicate larger fracture density. Factors causing mismatches between calculated parameter Q and fracture density are also analyzed. Fracture dip angle, fracture filling condition, vertical resolution of logs, multiple interpretations of conventional logs, and lateral detection difference between image and conventional logs may contribute to generate those false appearances. The results in this study are expected to provide new geological references for the exploration and development of ultra-deep tight gas in Keshen 2 Block of Kuqa Depression.