Empirical relationships between summertime oceanic heat anomalies in the Nordic seas and large-scale atmospheric circulation in the following winter

A lagged regression analysis between an index of observed summertime Atlantic water temperature (AWT) variability at the entrance to the Barents Sea in the period 1982–2005 and year-round atmospheric (NCEP/NCAR) reanalysis data is used to show that subsurface oceanic heat anomalies in high latitudes are significant precursors of wintertime atmospheric variability in middle latitudes. In particular, positive AWT anomalies precede predominantly westerly wind anomalies in high latitudes and easterly wind anomalies in middle latitudes. The mid-latitude wind anomalies, while being generally equivalent barotropic in the upper troposphere, have a strong low-level baroclinic contribution over Eurasia. The near-surface easterly wind anomalies in this area are locally deflected southward, maintaining cold spots near orography. The summertime oceanic anomalies explain about 40 % of the variance in the surface air temperature averaged over Eurasia from 35° to 45°N and about 50 % of the variance in surface winds over the Far East Asia in the following winter. We suggest that the remote connections arise from reorganization of the mid-latitude storm tracks. The AWT anomalies explain about 60 % of the variance in the upper-tropospheric storm track activity averaged over the Pacific and Eurasia from 35° to 55°N and in the lower-tropospheric poleward synoptic eddy heat flux over western Eurasia. Finally, we show that the AWT-associated wintertime atmospheric anomalies appear in quadrature with the concurrent anomalies associated with the North Atlantic Oscillation. These findings suggest that oceanic heat anomalies in high latitudes may be a useful predictor of atmospheric variability.