Normative scenario approach: a vehicle to connect adaptation planning and development needs in developing countries

Climate change adaptation is one of the many development challenges impacting livelihoods in developing countries. Scenario approaches are useful in adaptation planning by putting together projected climate change and socioeconomic trends with broader development needs when identifying associated priorities—and using them to develop appropriate strategies, plans and initiatives. To date, explorative scenario approaches have been largely adopted in adaptation planning. In this paper, we determine the benefits of using normative scenario approaches. They include a process known as “backcasting,” which is particularly useful for areas where adaptation planning and actions are strongly intertwined with development planning, and considerable efforts are needed to improve the well-being of the people living in those areas. We show the relevance of backcasting by presenting three case study applications in the following developing countries: Ghana, Honduras and Tajikistan. The results of these case studies indicate that backcasting has specific relevance for adaptation planning, including capacity building and awareness raising to contextualize information on climate impacts with stakeholders’ development needs. Our results also indicate that the developed scenarios provided benefits in promoting horizontal and vertical integration, thus bringing together diverse sectorial and sub-national priorities—adaptation options can thereby be aligned with these needs. Finally, use of the scenarios advances countries’ participation in national and multi-country adaptation projects by targeting actions that provide multiple benefits.