Spatial and temporal variability in dust storms in the Middle East, 2002–2018: three case studies in July 2009

The Middle East is one of the most vulnerable regions to climate change and severe droughts. Climate change is associated with an increase of extreme weather frequency events across the globe. Climate change and droughts cause both severity and persistence dust storms in this area. In this study, the spatial and temporal variability of dust storms were characterized in the Middle East using satellite data (NDVI, TRMM, and AOD Aqua MODIS), synoptic station observation in Iran, and a numerical Weather Prediction for one dust event. The investigations of NDVI, precipitation rate, surface temperature, and AOD time series have shown that a significant increase in both surface temperature and AOD characterize this area from 2002 until 2018. While the rate of precipitation significantly declined, NDVI does not show specific trends because of its large variability and human influences. However, the study also showed a sharp decline in precipitation and consequently in vegetation cover in 2008, which caused a significant increase in both AOD and frequency of dust days in 2009. More than 100 dust days in five synoptic weather stations in the study area were observed in 2009. Also, this study shows that the number of dust storms has increased due to changes in governing atmospheric patterns over the area. The results (more than 100 dust days in five synoptic weather stations in the study area were observed for 1 year) showed both the effects of the earth surface respectively vegetation pattern changes (based on NDVI) and the atmospheric reasons (decline in precipitation) are the first time investigated in the study area. A numerical model simulation of three severe dust storms in July 2009 shows that dust emissions cover vast parts of the study area including east parts of Syria, Central Iraq, and northern and southern coasts of the Persian Gulf. © 2021, Saudi Society for Geosciences.