Acceleration of thaw slump during 1997–2017 in the Qilian Mountains of the northern Qinghai-Tibetan plateau

Climate warming increases thermokarst landscapes and thus leads to land degradation in the Circum-Arctic regions. Thermokarst landscapes were estimated to cover ~ 20% of the northern permafrost region, and their development is related to ground ice content and topographic conditions. However, changes in thaw slump distribution and development in mid- to low-latitude permafrost areas largely remain unknown. Here, we selected the Qilian Mountains of the northern Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau (QTP) as the study area. Combined with field investigation to measure the boundary of thaw slump using Real Time Kinematic (RTK), we analyzed historical changes in thaw slumps using 1969 and 1997 aerial photographs, 2009 and 2015 satellite imagery, and 2017 unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) aerial images. The results showed that there are 15 thaw slumps covering an area of 0.03 km2, which were mainly distributed in terrain with a slope of 2–8° and elevation of 3552–3611 m. For the time periods of 1997–2009, 2009–2015, and 2015–2017, the average increase rates of thaw slump areas were approximately 61.8, 60.0, and 156.8 m2/y, and annual headwall retreat rates were approximately 1.3, 1.6 and 2.0 m/y. Based on the slopes, aspects, and altitudes from the Digital Elevation Model generated by UAV imagery, it suggested that geomorphic factors have no significant effect on the growth rates of thaw slump due to high heterogeneities of alpine environments. Our results showed that thaw slumps with polycyclic and active characteristics covered at least 0.9% of northern QTP permafrost regions and are expected to rapidly accelerate with climate warming.