Risk Prediction Score for HIV Infection: Development and Internal Validation with Cross-Sectional Data from Men Who Have Sex with Men in China

被引:0
作者
Lu Yin
Yuejuan Zhao
Meridith Blevins Peratikos
Liang Song
Xiangjun Zhang
Ruolei Xin
Zheya Sun
Yunan Xu
Li Zhang
Yifei Hu
Chun Hao
Yuhua Ruan
Yiming Shao
Sten H. Vermund
Han-Zhu Qian
机构
[1] Medical Research & Biometrics Center,Vanderbilt Institute for Global Health
[2] National Center for Cardiovascular Diseases,Departments of Biostatistics
[3] Vanderbilt University Medical Center,State Key Laboratory of Infectious Disease Prevention and Control, Collaborative Innovation Center for Diagnosis and Treatment of Infectious Diseases
[4] Beijing Municipal Center for Disease Control and Prevention & Centers for Preventive Medical Research,Department of Epidemiology, College of Public Health and Health Professions
[5] Vanderbilt University Medical Center,Department of Child, Adolescent Health and Maternal Health, School of Public Health
[6] Chaoyang District Center for Disease Control and Prevention,School of Public Health
[7] Xicheng District Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Yale School of Public Health
[8] Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention,undefined
[9] University of Florida,undefined
[10] Capital Medical University,undefined
[11] Sun Yat-sen University,undefined
[12] Yale University,undefined
来源
AIDS and Behavior | 2018年 / 22卷
关键词
Men who have sex with men (MSM); Risk score; HIV; HIV prevention; China;
D O I
暂无
中图分类号
学科分类号
摘要
Receptive anal intercourse, multiple partners, condomless sex, sexually transmitted infections (STIs), and drug/alcohol addiction are familiar factors that correlate with increased human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) risk among men who have sex with men (MSM). To improve estimation to HIV acquisition, we created a composite score using questions from routine survey of 3588 MSM in Beijing, China. The HIV prevalence was 13.4%. A risk scoring tool using penalized maximum likelihood multivariable logistic regression modeling was developed, deploying backward step-down variable selection to obtain a reduced-form model. The full penalized model included 19 sexual predictors, while the reduced-form model had 12 predictors. Both models calibrated well; bootstrap-corrected c-indices were 0.70 (full model) and 0.71 (reduced-form model). Non-Beijing residence, short-term living in Beijing, illegal drug use, multiple male sexual partners, receptive anal sex, inconsistent condom use, alcohol consumption before sex, and syphilis infection were the strongest predictors of HIV infection. Discriminating higher-risk MSM for targeted HIV prevention programming using a validated risk score could improve the efficiency of resource deployment for educational and risk reduction programs. A valid risk score can also identify higher risk persons into prevention and vaccine clinical trials, which would improve trial cost-efficiency.
引用
收藏
页码:2267 / 2276
页数:9
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