Spatiotemporal evolution and driving factors of ecosystem service bundle based on multi-scenario simulation in Beibu Gulf urban agglomeration, China

Rapid urbanization is profoundly impacting the ecological environment and landscape patterns, leading to a decline in ecosystem services (ES) and posing threats to both ecological security and human well-being. This study aimed to identify the spatial and temporal patterns of ecosystem service bundles (ESB) in the Beibu Gulf urban agglomeration from 2000 to 2030, analyze the trajectory of ESB evolution, and elucidate the drivers behind ESB formation and evolution. We utilized the Patch-generating Land Use Simulation (PLUS) model to establish baseline (BLS), carbon sequestration priority (CPS), and urbanization priority (UPS) scenarios for simulating land use patterns in 2030. Following the assessment of ecosystem service values (ESV) through the equivalent factor method, we identified the spatiotemporal distribution patterns of ESB using the K-means clustering algorithm. By employing stability mapping and landscape indices, we identified and analyzed various types of ESB evolutionary trajectories. Redundancy analysis (RDA) was employed to pinpoint the drivers of ESB formation and evolution. The results revealed that from 2000 to 2030, land use changes were primarily observed in cropland, forestland, and construction land. Between 2000 and 2020, 92.88% of the region did not experience shifts in ESB types. In UPS, the ESB pattern in the study area underwent significant changes, with only 76.68% of the region exhibiting stabilized trajectories, while the other two scenarios recorded percentages higher than 80%. Key drivers of ESB-type shifts included initial food provision services, elevation, slope, changes in the proportion of construction land, and population change. This multi-scenario simulation of ESB evolution due to land use changes aids in comprehending potential future development directions from diverse perspectives and serves as a valuable reference for formulating and changing ecological management policies and strategies.