Toward an early warning system for dengue prevention: modeling climate impact on dengue transmission

被引：0
作者：
Nicolas Degallier
Charly Favier
Christophe Menkes
Matthieu Lengaigne
Walter M. Ramalho
Régilo Souza
Jacques Servain
Jean-Philippe Boulanger
机构：
[1] Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD),LOCEAN
[2] Université Montpellier II-pl. E. Bataillon,IPSL
[3] SVS-MS,Institut des Sciences de l’Evolution (UMR CNRS 5554)
[4] Esplanada dos Ministérios,undefined
[5] Bloco G,undefined
[6] Fundação Cearense de Meteorologia e Recursos Hídricos (FUNCEME),undefined
来源：
Climatic Change | 2010年 / 98卷
关键词：
West Nile Virus; Dengue Fever; Dengue Case; Eastern Equine Encephalitis Virus; Seasonal Climate Forecast;
D O I：
暂无
中图分类号：
学科分类号：
摘要：
Dengue fever is the most prevalent mosquito-borne viral disease of humans in tropical lands. As an efficient vaccine is not yet available, the only means to prevent epidemics is to control mosquito populations. These are influenced by human behavior and climatic conditions and thus, need constant effort and are very expansive. Examples of succeeded prevention are rare because of the continuous reintroduction of virus or vector from outside, or growing resistance of mosquito populations to insecticides. Climate variability and global warming are other factors which may favour epidemics of dengue. During a pilot study in Claris EC project, a model for the transmission of dengue was built, to serve as a tool for estimating the risk of epidemic transmission and eventually forecasting the risk under climatic change scenarios. An ultimate objective would be to use the model as an early warning system with meteorological forecasts as input, thus allowing better decision making and prevention.
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页码：581 / 592
页数：11
相关论文
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