Safe and just Earth system boundaries

被引：618

作者：

Rockstroem, Johan ^{[1
,2
,3
]}

Gupta, Joyeeta ^{[4
,5
]}

Qin, Dahe ^{[6
,7
,8
]}

Lade, Steven J. ^{[3
,9
,10
]}

Abrams, Jesse F. ^{[11
]}

Andersen, Lauren S. ^{[1
]}

Armstrong McKay, David I. ^{[3
,11
,12
]}

Bai, Xuemei ^{[10
]}

Bala, Govindasamy ^{[13
]}

Bunn, Stuart E. ^{[14
]}

Ciobanu, Daniel ^{[3
]}

DeClerck, Fabrice ^{[15
,16
]}

Ebi, Kristie ^{[17
]}

Gifford, Lauren ^{[18
]}

Gordon, Christopher ^{[19
]}

Hasan, Syezlin ^{[14
]}

Kanie, Norichika ^{[20
]}

Lenton, Timothy M. ^{[11
]}

Loriani, Sina ^{[1
]}

Liverman, Diana M. ^{[18
]}

Mohamed, Awaz ^{[21
]}

Nakicenovic, Nebojsa ^{[22
]}

Obura, David ^{[23
]}

Ospina, Daniel ^{[9
]}

Prodani, Klaudia ^{[4
]}

Rammelt, Crelis ^{[4
]}

Sakschewski, Boris ^{[1
]}

Scholtens, Joeri ^{[4
]}

Stewart-Koster, Ben ^{[14
]}

Tharammal, Thejna ^{[24
]}

van Vuuren, Detlef ^{[25
,26
]}

Verburg, Peter H. ^{[27
,28
]}

Winkelmann, Ricarda ^{[1
,29
]}

Zimm, Caroline ^{[22
]}

Bennett, Elena M. ^{[30
,31
,32
]}

Bringezu, Stefan ^{[33
]}

Broadgate, Wendy ^{[9
]}

Green, Pamela A. ^{[34
]}

Huang, Lei ^{[35
]}

Jacobson, Lisa ^{[9
]}

Ndehedehe, Christopher ^{[14
,36
]}

Pedde, Simona ^{[9
,37
]}

Rocha, Juan ^{[3
,9
]}

Scheffer, Marten ^{[38
]}

Schulte-Uebbing, Lena ^{[25
,39
]}

de Vries, Wim ^{[39
]}

Xiao, Cunde ^{[6
,40
]}

Xu, Chi ^{[41
]}

Xu, Xinwu ^{[7
,8
]}

Zafra-Calvo, Noelia ^{[42
]}

机构：

[1] Leibniz Assoc, Potsdam Inst Climate Impact Res PIK, Potsdam, Germany

[2] Univ Potsdam, Inst Environm Sci & Geog, Potsdam, Germany

[3] Stockholm Univ, Stockholm Resilience Ctr, Stockholm, Sweden

[4] Univ Amsterdam, Amsterdam Inst Social Sci Res, Amsterdam, Netherlands

[5] IHE Delft Inst Water Educ, Delft, Netherlands

[6] Chinese Acad Sci, Northwest Inst Ecoenvironm & Resources, State Key Lab Cryospher Sci, Lanzhou, Peoples R China

[7] China Meteorol Adm, Beijing, Peoples R China

[8] Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Beijing, Peoples R China

[9] Future Earth Secretariat, Stockholm, Sweden

[10] Australian Natl Univ, Fenner Sch Environm & Soc, Canberra, Australia

[11] Univ Exeter, Global Syst Inst, Exeter, Devon, England

[12] Georesilience Analyt, Leatherhead, England

[13] Indian Inst Sci, Ctr Atmospher & Ocean Sci, Bengaluru, India

[14] Griffith Univ, Australian Rivers Inst, Brisbane, Australia

[15] EAT, Oslo, Norway

[16] Alliance Biovers Int, Montpellier, France

[17] Univ Washington, Ctr Hlth & Global Environm, Seattle, WA USA

[18] Univ Arizona, Sch Geog Dev & Environm, Tucson, AZ USA

[19] Univ Ghana, Inst Environm & Sanitat Studies, Legon, Ghana

[20] Keio Univ, Grad Sch Media & Governance, Fujisawa, Japan

[21] Univ Hamburg, Funct Forest Ecol, Barsbuttel, Germany

[22] Int Inst Appl Syst Anal, Laxenburg, Austria

[23] CORDIO East Africa, Mombasa, Kenya

[24] Indian Inst Sci, Interdisciplinary Ctr Water Res, Bengaluru, India

[25] Univ Utrecht, Copernicus Inst Sustainable Dev, Utrecht, Netherlands

[26] PBL Netherlands Environm Assessment Agcy, The Hague, Netherlands

[27] Swiss Fed Inst Forest Snow & Landscape Res, Birmensdorf, Switzerland

[28] Vrije Univ Amsterdam, Inst Environm Studies, Amsterdam, Netherlands

[29] Univ Potsdam, Inst Phys & Astron, Potsdam, Germany

[30] McGill Univ, Bieler Sch Environm, Montreal, PQ, Canada

[31] CGIAR, CIAT, Montpellier, France

[32] McGill Univ, Dept Nat Resource Sci, Montreal, PQ, Canada

[33] Kassel Univ, Ctr Environm Syst Res, Kassel, Germany

[34] CUNY, Adv Sci Res Ctr, Environm Sci Initiat, Grad Ctr, New York, NY USA

[35] Natl Climate Ctr, Beijing, Peoples R China

[36] Griffith Univ, Sch Environm & Sci, Nathan, Australia

[37] Wageningen Univ & Res, Soil Geog & Landscape Grp, Wageningen, Netherlands

[38] Wageningen Univ & Res, Dept Environm Sci, Wageningen, Netherlands

[39] Wageningen Univ & Res, Environm Syst Anal Grp, Wageningen, Netherlands

[40] Beijing Normal Univ, State Key Lab Earth Surface Proc & Resource Ecol, Beijing, Peoples R China

[41] Nanjing Univ, Sch Life Sci, Nanjing, Peoples R China

[42] Univ Basque Country, Basque Ctr Climate Change Bc3, Sci Campus, Biscay, Spain

[43] Univ Maryland, Appalachian Lab, Ctr Environm Sci, Frostburg, MD USA

来源：

NATURE | 2023年 / 619卷 / 7968期

基金：

澳大利亚研究理事会; 欧洲研究理事会; 瑞典研究理事会;

关键词：

FRESH-WATER; PLANETARY BOUNDARY; AIR-POLLUTION; BIODIVERSITY; FUTURE; SUSTAINABILITY; PHOSPHORUS; HYDROLOGY; BURDEN; IMPACT;

D O I：

10.1038/s41586-023-06083-8

中图分类号：

O [数理科学和化学]; P [天文学、地球科学]; Q [生物科学]; N [自然科学总论];

学科分类号：

07 ; 0710 ; 09 ;

摘要：

The stability and resilience of the Earth system and human well-being are inseparably linked(1-3), yet their interdependencies are generally under-recognized; consequently, they are often treated independently(4,5). Here, we use modelling and literature assessment to quantify safe and just Earth system boundaries (ESBs) for climate, the biosphere, water and nutrient cycles, and aerosols at global and subglobal scales. We propose ESBs for maintaining the resilience and stability of the Earth system (safe ESBs) and minimizing exposure to significant harm to humans from Earth system change (a necessary but not sufficient condition for justice)(4). The stricter of the safe or just boundaries sets the integrated safe and just ESB. Our findings show that justice considerations constrain the integrated ESBs more than safety considerations for climate and atmospheric aerosol loading. Seven of eight globally quantified safe and just ESBs and at least two regional safe and just ESBs in over half of global land area are already exceeded. We propose that our assessment provides a quantitative foundation for safeguarding the global commons for all people now and into the future.

引用

页码：102 / +

页数：19

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