September sea-ice cover in the Arctic Ocean projected to vanish by 2100

被引：0

作者：

Boé J. ^{[1
]}

Hall A. ^{[1
]}

Qu X. ^{[1
]}

机构：

[1] Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences Department, University of California Los Angeles, CA 90095-1565

来源：

Nature Geoscience | 2009年 / 2卷 / 5期

基金：

美国国家科学基金会;

关键词：

D O I：

10.1038/ngeo467

中图分类号：

学科分类号：

摘要：

The Arctic climate is changing rapidly. From 1979 to 2006, September sea-ice extent decreased by almost 25% or about 100,000 km 2 peryear (ref.2). In September 2007, Arctic sea-ice extent reached its lowest level since satellite observations began and in September 2008, sea-ice cover was still low. This development has raised concerns that the Arctic Ocean could be ice-free in late summer in only a few decades, with important economic and geopolitical implications. Unfortunately, most current climate models underestimate significantly the observed trend in Arctic sea-ice decline, leading to doubts regarding their projections for the timing of ice-free conditions. Here we analyse the simulated trends in past sea-ice cover in18 state-of-art-climate models and find a direct relationship between the simulated evolution of September sea-ice cover over the twenty-first century and the magnitude of past trends in sea-ice cover. Using this relationship together with observed trends, we project the evolution of September sea-ice cover over the twenty-first century. We find that under a scenario with medium future greenhouse-gas emissions, the Arctic Ocean will probably be ice-free in September before the end of the twenty-first century. © 2009 Macmillan Publishers Limited.

引用

页码：341 / 343

页数：2

共 13 条

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