Seismic behaviour of the North Anatolian Fault beneath the Sea of Marmara (NW Turkey): implications for earthquake recurrence times and future seismic hazard

Possible long-term seismic behaviour of the Northern strand of the North Anatolian Fault Zone, between western extreme of the 1999 İzmit rupture and the Aegean Sea, after 400 AD is studied by examining the historical seismicity, the submarine fault mapping and the paleoseismological studies of the recent scientific efforts. The long-term seismic behaviour is discussed through two possible seismicity models devised from MS ≥ 7.0 historical earthquakes. The estimated return period of years of the fault segments for M1 and M2 seismic models along with their standard deviations are as follows: F4 segment 255 ± 60 and 258 ± 12; F5 segment 258 ± 60 and 258 ± 53; F6 segment 258 ± 60 and 258 ± 53; F7 segment 286 ± 103 and 286 ± 90; F8 segment 286 ± 90 and 286 ± 36. As the latest ruptures on the submarine segments have been reported to be during the 1754–1766 earthquake sequence, and the 1912 mainshock rupture has been evidenced to extend almost all over the western part of the Sea of Marmara, our results imply imminent seismic hazard and, considering the mean recurrence time, a large earthquake to strike the eastern part of the Sea of Marmara in the next two decades.