Using state polls to forecast U.S. Presidential election outcomes

被引：0
作者：
Souren Soumbatiants
Henry W. Chappell
Eric Johnson
机构：
[1] Lincoln Memorial University,Department of Business
[2] University of South Carolina,Department of Economics
[3] Kent State University,Department of Economics
来源：
Public Choice | 2006年 / 127卷
关键词：
Public Finance; State Poll; Presidential Election; Election Outcome; Vote Outcome;
D O I：
暂无
中图分类号：
学科分类号：
摘要：
This paper uses pre-election polls to forecast U.S. Presidential election outcomes in the states and the Electoral College. The approach is notable in three ways. First, we employ state-level polls to predict voting outcomes in the states; second, we associate probabilities with alternative election outcomes, and third, we identify states most likely to be pivotal in the Electoral College. Using information available on the day before the election, we estimated that the probability of a Republican victory in the Electoral College in the 2004 election was 47.27%.
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页码：207 / 223
页数：16
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