Fusing strategic risk and futures methods to inform long-term strategic planning: case of water utilities

被引：2
作者：
Luís A. [1 ,2 ]
Garnett K. [1 ]
Pollard S.J.T. [1 ]
Lickorish F. [1 ]
Jude S. [1 ]
Leinster P. [1 ]
机构：
[1] School of Water, Energy and Environment, Cranfield University, College Road, Cranfield, MK42 0AL, Bedfordshire
[2] Empresa Portuguesa das Águas Livres S.A., Grupo Águas da Portugal, Avenida de Berlim 15, Lisbon
来源：
Environment Systems and Decisions | 2021年 / 41卷 / 4期
基金：
英国自然环境研究理事会; 英国工程与自然科学研究理事会; 英国经济与社会研究理事会;
关键词：
Futures; Risk; Strategic decisions; Utility; Water;
D O I：
10.1007/s10669-021-09815-1
中图分类号：
学科分类号：
摘要：
Risks and futures methods have complementary strengths as tools for managing strategic decisions under uncertainty. When combined, these tools increase organisational competency to evaluate and manage long-term risks, improving the flexibility and agility of the organisation to deal with gross uncertainties. Here, we set out a framework to guide the assessment of strategic risks for long-term business planning, based on its application at Portugal’s largest water utility, Empresa Portuguesa das Águas Livres. Our approach extends strategic risk assessment by incorporating scenario planning—a futures approach used to help the utility move beyond single point forecast of risks to focus on critical dimensions of uncertainty that are fundamental to the resilience of corporate objectives and their vulnerability to external pressures. We demonstrate how we combine two complementary approaches—risk and futures—and use them to assess (i) how a set of baseline strategic risks for a water utility evolves under alternative futures, (ii) the aggregate corporate-level risk exposure, and (iii) the process and responses needed to manage multiple, interdependent strategic risks. The framework offers a corporate approach to evolving strategic risks and improves a utility’s (i) knowledge of uncertainties, (ii) ability to assess the impacts of external developments over long time horizons and the consequences of actions and (iii) degree of flexibility to adapt to possible future challenges. The framework supports risk managers in their long-term strategic planning, through the appraisal and management of multiple, interdependent long-term strategic risks and can be replicated in other organisational contexts to bridge operational and corporate perspectives of enterprise risk. © 2021, The Author(s).
引用
收藏
页码：523 / 540
页数：17
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