Assessment of Future Climate Change Impacts on Water Resources of Upper Sind River Basin, India Using SWAT Model

被引：0
作者：
Boini Narsimlu
Ashvin K. Gosain
Baghu R. Chahar
机构：
[1] Indian Institute of Technology Delhi,Department of Civil Engineering
[2] Indian Grassland and Fodder Research Institute—ICAR,FM & PHT Division
来源：
Water Resources Management | 2013年 / 27卷
关键词：
Climate change; Streamflow; SWAT model; PRECIS; Calibration; Validation;
D O I：
暂无
中图分类号：
学科分类号：
摘要：
A study has been conducted to assess future climate change impacts on water resources of the Upper Sind River Basin using Soil Water Assessment Tool. Sequential uncertainty fitting (SUFI-2) algorithm has been applied for model calibration and uncertainty analysis. Monthly observed stream flows matched well with simulated flows with respect to p-factor, d-factor, Correlation coefficient and Nash-Sutcliffe coefficients with values of 0.73, 0.42, 0.82, 0.80 during calibration (1992–2000) and 0.42, 0.36, 0.96, 0.93 during validation (2001–2005) respectively. PRECIS generated outputs under IPCC A1B Scenarios for Indian conditions corresponding to the baseline (1961–1990), midcentury (2021–2050) and endcentury (2071–2098); extracted by Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune (India) have been used for the study. It has been found from the model results that the average annual streamflow could increase by 16.4 % for the midcentury and a significant increase of 93.5 % by the endcentury. The results also indicate that streamflow may rise drastically in monsoon season, but will decrease in non-monsoon season due to the projected future climate change.
引用
收藏
页码：3647 / 3662
页数：15
相关论文
共 131 条
[1]  
Abbaspour KC(2004)Estimating uncertain flow and transport parameters using a sequential uncertainty fitting procedure Vadose Zone J 3 1340-1352
[2]  
Johnson A(2007)Modelling hydrology and water quality in the pre-alpine/alpine Thur watershed using SWAT J Hydrol 333 413-430
[3]  
van Genuchten MT(1993)A comprehensive surface groundwater flow model J Hydrol 142 47-69
[4]  
Abbaspour KC(1998)Large area hydrologic modeling and assessment: Part I Model development J Am Water Resour Assoc 34 73-89
[5]  
Yang J(2000)Regional estimation of baseflow and groundwater recharge in the Upper Mississippi River basin J Hydrol 227 21-40
[6]  
Maximov I(1993)Criteria for evaluation of watershed models J Irrig Drainage Eng 119 429-442
[7]  
Siber R(2010)Watershed modeling to assessing impacts of potential climate change on water supply availability Water Resour Manage 24 3299-3320
[8]  
Bogner K(2003)Watershed scale hydrologic and nonpoint source pollution models: review of mathematical bases Trans ASAE 46 1553-1566
[9]  
Mieleitner J(2001)Automatic calibration of a distributed catchment model J Hydrol 251 103-109
[10]  
Zobrist J(2007)The Soil and Water Assessment Tool: historical development, applications and future research directions Trans ASABE 50 1211-1250
12345678910