Comment on “The global ecological niche of lumpfish (Cyclopterus lumpus) and predicted range shifts under climate change”

Rodríguez-Rey and Whittaker (Hydrobiologia 850:2089–2100, 2023, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10750-023-05220-8) recently investigated the ecological niche of lumpfish (Cyclopterus lumpus) in the Atlantic Ocean using species distribution models. They utilise occurrence records of lumpfish from the Global Biodiversity Information Facility (GBIF) and environmental data extracted from Bio-ORACLE v2.0. A premise of their analysis is that that the GBIF data reflects the relative distribution of lumpfish in the North Atlantic. However, this assumption does not hold true, as evident from the geographic imbalance observed between the GBIF samples and the data obtained from commercial fisheries for lumpfish, as well as fish surveys conducted across the North Atlantic. There is also a concern that only 11% of the individuals listed in the dataset overlapped with the time period from when environmental parameters were estimated (2000–2014). Comparing the suitability index calculated using output from the species distribution models raises concerns about its reliability as it conflicts with the actual distribution of lumpfish from survey data in the eastern Atlantic. This conflict suggests serious problems with the model, and any projections into the future should be treated with caution.