Simulation and coordinated development of an economic, energy, and environmental carrying capacity system from the perspective of scientific and technological progress: a case study of the Yangtze River Economic Belt in China

The current period of rapid industrialization has not only brought about rapid economic growth but also caused serious energy shortages and environmental pollution, which have affected the sustainable development of the economy. Therefore, it is of great significance to analyse the changes in regional economic, energy, and environmental carrying capacity (3ECC); analyse the interaction among them; and propose corresponding optimization strategies for promoting regional sustainable development. In this study, a 3ECC simulation system is constructed from the pressure and support levels of load-bearing capacity. A system dynamics model is used to simulate the evolution path and action relationship of the 3ECC system, and an empirical test is completed in the Yangtze River Economic Belt region in China. A coupling coordination model and Bayesian vector autoregressive model are used to further explore the degree and action mode of the 3ECC system support and pressure indices. The results show that the model can truly reflect the characteristics of regional development and is suitable for prediction in this study. From 2015 to 2035, driven by technological progress, China's economic aggregate will grow by 223%, oil consumption by 33%, coal consumption by 23%, soil pollution by 197%, water pollution by 134%, and air pollution by 80.9%. Moreover, the coordination degree of the 3ECC supporting indicators gradually increases, while that of the pressure indicators gradually decreases, indicating that economic growth has a synergistic effect on environmental protection and energy conservation, thus further expanding the differences between environmental pollution and energy consumption. Finally, the supporting index of the economic carrying capacity and supporting index of the environmental carrying capacity have the widest influence range, and the optimization of economic and environmental development status is beneficial to the overall improvement of the 3ECC system. The influence range of the energy carrying capacity support index is small, indicating that coal and oil are being gradually replaced by other energy sources. Therefore, the research results of this paper can provide a reference for the sustainable development of other regions.