How did women's education and differential family planning policies shape transition to second and third births in historical China? New evidence from micro data

The influence of China's family planning policies on fertility transition is widely acknowledged in research studies. However, little is known about how improvements in women's education have shaped reproductive decisions of Chinese women across different family planning regimes, particularly at micro level. This study uses retrospective pooled birth history data from five consecutive population and family planning surveys collected over the period 1982-2006 to systematically examine the interrelationship between family planning policies and women's education, and their interactive effect on the second and third birth transitions. We hypothesize that family planning policies had a differential influence on educational groups in reducing the transition to second and third births. The results from discrete time complementary log-log survival models provide strong evidence of differential reproductive behavior of education groups across time in China, and the simultaneous influence of women's education and family planning policies in lowering risks to higher parities. The rates of progression to second and third births tend to be lower after the introduction of rigid family planning policies, and more importantly, the policy impact persisted even after adjusting for demographic and socioeconomic factors. The increase in women's education overall had a depressing effect on transition to higher parities, and family planning policies implemented overtime have had differential effects on women from different educational groups. The findings show that both family planning policies and women's education have been instrumental in shaping fertility behavior in China.